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Monday, April 18, 2011

If you had to choose between an Apple and a Google which would you choose?

It's amazing to be writing about Google and Apple as value plays but the reality is that both are selling pretty inexpensive relative to earnings power.. Google currently sits at 19.30 P/E, one of the lowest P/E even during the 2009 market collapse it was in the 20's.  Here is a chart showing Googles growth in the last few years from Nasdaq.com

YearSalesNet IncomeEPS
12/200610,604.923,077.459.94
12/200716,593.994,203.7213.29
12/200821,795.554,226.8613.31
12/200923,651.006,520.0020.41
12/201029,321.008,505.0026.31
Growth Rates28.9528.9427.55


If Google continues this growth let's say for just 5 more years the stock would sell at an equivalent of a stock under 10 P/E. This is what makes it a value play.. Currently Google is valued at 3.46 x Book Value and 4.38 x Tangible book value.. Definitely not a Benjamin Graham book value play but more of a legendary Peter Lynch growth company play.

Here is a little info on Apple inc. Apple currently trades at 18.52 P/E, not one of the lowest P/E in Apple history but Apple has been trading in this range for a few years now.  Here is a chart showing Apple's growth in the last few years from Nasdaq.com


YearSalesNet IncomeEPS
09/200619,315.001,989.002.27
09/200724,006.003,496.003.93
09/200832,479.004,834.005.36
09/200942,905.008,235.006.29
09/201065,225.0014,013.0015.15
Growth Rates35.5662.9260.73

Wow pretty impressive growth right?? Apple without a doubt has been delivering great growth and if it continued at this growth for 5 more years it would trade for an equivalent of 6 P/E. This is what makes it a value play and the fact that I think Apple has reached a tipping point.  More and more people are now going to macs and are abandoning windows, not a good thing for Microsoft, but a great thing for Apple.  Currently Apple is valued at 5.52 x book value and 5.65 x tangible book value.. Again definitely not a Benjamin Graham book value and even Peter Lynch would say this company is growing too fast and its growth is unattainable growth for the future..

 In the end if I had to choose one of these I believe I would choose Google.  More companies are working with Google to produce products and it seems like google survives whether the next hit phone is an Iphone or a windows 9 phone; not the same story for Apple.  Right now everyone is gunning for Apple, like a champion fighter the more people know about you the better the chance of exploiting your weaknesses  and what happens if the Apple fad dies when Steve goes?

Just a quick thought from the mind of an insomniac.

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